The report says China will become the world's largest oil importer by 2020
Sucker rod manufacturer shares that global oil prices have been falling slowly in recent months. However, these declines have had little impact on global markets, with global oil prices still consolidating at high levels. For the past three years, OPEC oil has been trading at $105, about four times what it was a decade ago.
At a global energy outlook event in New York on Thursday, the iea's chief economist, jan fatih. FatihBirol said that although the iea predicted that the United States would overtake Saudi Arabia as the largest oil producer in the near future, its oil exports would be constrained by strategic policies and the rising demand of Asian countries would still need to be met by supplies from the Middle East.
Earlier today, Opec backed up that assessment with its 2018 oil output statement. The day of the 12-nation organization of petroleum exporting countries (Opec) 164th ministerial meeting in Vienna. Opec will maintain its current production target of 30 million barrels a day in the first half of 2018, the meeting said. Saudi oil minister ali. Ali al-naimi told the conference that the oil market was in the best shape at a time when global oil demand was abundant and economic growth was accelerating.
Global oil demand, especially in Asia, is still growing at an alarming rate. According to the international energy agency's 2018 annual global energy outlook report released in November, the focus of energy demand is undoubtedly shifting to emerging economies, especially China, India and the Middle East, which contribute more than a third of global energy demand growth. The report predicts that China will become the world's largest oil importer by around 2020, after which India will replace the engine of energy demand growth.
However, other recent signals suggest that Opec's current forecasts for oil prices, particularly in the short term, may be too optimistic.
In the same report, the iea predicts that the recent slow decline in oil prices is likely to accelerate further: brent prices are expected to fall to $106 in December, while international prices will average around $103 in early 2018. Brent prices averaged $112 in September and $109 in October, according to the report.
The expected drop in oil prices is expected to be justified by strong hopes for a resumption of Iranian oil supplies following Iran's surprise nuclear deal with the us and Europe that directly suspended oil export sanctions that have been in place for more than two years.
Iran's comments on Thursday are expected to reinforce those expectations and raise expectations of a range of price declines.
Just before the Opec meeting, Iran's oil minister bi Yang. BijanZangeneh said Iran's oil production would rise by 1m barrels a day to 4m b/d once sanctions imposed on it were eased, and that it would increase to that level even if oil prices fell to $20 a barrel.
It shows how eager Iran is to get back into the global oil market. As things stand, Opec's oil-price strategy is in jeopardy if Iran and Iraq join the "fight" and if rising oil prices in the United States reduce its dependence on oil imports.
"The role of the global energy market is changing dramatically. Last year we highlighted that the us is expected to move from an oil importer to an exporter in the next few years. This year we highlighted that Brazil is at the forefront of deepwater development and low-carbon development." Birol said.
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