Crude oil prices are expected to be strong in the third quarter shared the steel drill pipe supplier.
Since June, international crude oil prices have shown a trend of decline before rising, with the main contract price of NYMEX crude oil futures recovering from nearly $50 per barrel to above $60 per barrel. Analysts said that in the storm warning, federal reserve chairman colin Powell "dovish" comments combined with the us unexpectedly lower inventories in the background, the third quarter is still strong run is the main theme of crude oil prices.
Oil prices rebounded
After falling sharply in late may, the main NYMEX contract hit a new phase low of $50.79 a barrel on June 5, then bounced back to close at $60.39 a barrel on July 12.
"International crude oil prices stopped falling in early June and then consolidated. During this period, the escalation of the Iranian nuclear issue and the return of the us to the downward cycle have provided potential drivers for oil prices. In addition, oil prices have surged to recent highs after the U.S. national hurricane center issued a tropical storm warning last week and reports that some offshore drilling platforms in the gulf of Mexico were shut down. Sdic anxin futures energy chief analyst gao mingyu, senior analyst li yunxu said.
In addition, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell 9.499 million barrels per day to 459 million barrels per day in the week ended July 5, EIA data showed. Crude oil production is expected to rise 100,000 barrels per day to 12.3 million barrels per day, while crude oil exports rose 58,000 barrels per day, while imports excluding strategic reserves fell 283,000 barrels per day. The steady decline in inventories shows the impact of the oil price crash at the end of last year on upstream investment, analysts said. That is, the number of active RIGS dropped gradually, production entered a relatively stable period, and the year-on-year growth of production gradually decreased.
Short-term price will run from the macro and geographical environment, the more the ming-yu gao, Li Yunxu said oil demand growth has been a consensus and weaker were trading in full, the recent situation in international trade may be improved with the global easing expected to higher oil prices provide relatively benign environment, the possibility of a repeat last year's fourth quarter slump is reduced greatly. The Iranian nuclear issue is still escalating with the United States and Iran. Although the impact on Iran's crude oil exports is hardly marginal, the premium caused by geopolitical risks still has room for fermentation.
For game pattern of oil producers, after 2016 have been thoroughly before the "prisoner's dilemma" into "cowards game", "leader" to limit production support value is the optimal choice, Saudi game balance determines the relative stability of OPEC output over a period of time will be the new normal, low possibility to increase production, the supply side appears "black swans" not much of a risk.
For the afternoon, citic construction investment futures analyst li yanjie said, taken together, OPEC production decline, hurricane hit and rising geopolitical risks, such as positive resonance, may continue to support oil prices in the short term.
Gao mingyu and li yunxu believe that although the rise in crude oil prices in the third quarter is worth looking forward to, whether from the macro level or the U.S. market, the driving force of the rise is more from the repair of the early pessimistic expectations, the market may not be smooth sailing. Strategy, it is recommended to do more on the low, grasp the wave - band market.
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